October 7, one year on: new world (dis)order?

Recorded at the Battle of Ideas festival 2024 on Sunday 20 October at Church House, Westminster.

ORIGINAL INTRODUCTION

The barbaric terrorism of Hamas fighters against Israel on 7 October 2023 seemed to once again upend geopolitics. Just as analysts were getting their heads around the ‘new order’ inaugurated by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the attack in Israel, and Israel’s ensuing war in Gaza to destroy Hamas, seemed to open a new chapter in geopolitical history. Perhaps most notably, the war has seen widespread condemnation of Israel by many erstwhile Western allies. Depending on who you asked, this either displayed Hamas’s Islamist savagery for all to see, or Israel’s utter abandonment of the rules of war. Either way, immediately a new dynamic emerged.

In the past year, the prosecution of the war has seemed to repeatedly escalate tensions in the Middle East. Many talk of Israel and Iran as being on the verge of war as the two countries trade attacks. Israel also faces a conflict with Hezbollah, even as many question how well it has succeeded in its attempt to destroy Hamas in Gaza. It has thrown up economic issues across the Middle East, too.

The war has also had global consequences: it seems to have strained Israel’s relationships with many Western allies as so many line up to denounce a so-called ‘genocide’ in Gaza. Across the West, the war has also been accompanied by a surge in anti-Semitism.

But perhaps the broader consequence of the war in Gaza has been the globalisation of the culture war. Over the past year, Western societies have seen the emergence of a relatively small but very vocal anti-Israel / pro-Palestine coalition. What is most notable about this is less the sympathy for those suffering in Gaza, but the sense that this coalition unites previously disparate groups – from hardcore Islamists to LGBTQ activists. At times, it seems that the war in Gaza is less about Gaza and more about pre-existing cultural conflicts like identity politics or the battle over Western history.

Looming over these conflicts is also the question of China. Many American military planners insist that a major conflict with China is inevitable while some in the West try to paint a new ‘global resistance’ to American power, spearheaded by China, Russia and Iran. Yet, aside from the odd foray into the culture war or guarded support for Putin, China has tried to position itself as above the fray.

Where does this leave the global balance of power in 2024? What have wars in Ukraine and in Gaza exposed about the global order? Are we witnessing a re-ordering of the world amid American decline and Chinese ascendence? Perhaps the dynamic is more one of a fracturing of the globe into different regional centre – or something else entirely? Are we on the verge of a new cold war, or is the culture war becoming globalised?

SPEAKERS
Nick Busvine OBE
consultant; founding partner, Herminius Holdings Ltd; advisory board member, Briefings for Britain; former diplomat, Foreign and Commonwealth Office

Melissa Chen
managing director, Strategy Risks; co-founder, Ideas Beyond Borders; contributing editor, Spectator World

Professor Bill Durodié
chair of International Relations, department of politics, languages and international studies, University of Bath

Ashley Rindsberg
investigative journalist; author, The Gray Lady Winked: How the New York Times' misreporting, distortions and fabrications radically alter history

Dr Ralph Schoellhammer
commentator and podcaster; assistant professor of International Relations, Webster University Vienna

CHAIR
Jacob Reynolds
head of policy, MCC Brussels; associate fellow, Academy of Ideas