What’s the endgame for Ukraine?

Recorded at the Battle of Ideas festival 2024 on Sunday 20 October at Church House, Westminster.

ORIGINAL INTRODUCTION

Over two and a half years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an end to the conflict seems as elusive as ever. Yet in many circles, the conversation has begun to turn towards the question of ending the war.

Certainly, the possible election of Donald Trump adds impetus to the debate. Trump has promised to end the war in 24 hours if elected, and his vice-presidential pick, JD Vance, has made no secret of his desire to end the war at any costs, nor his dislike for Ukraine’s president Zelensky. More broadly, international support for Ukraine seems at something of an impasse: countries like Germany have announced they are winding back support and the US seems unwilling to budge on its reluctance to let Ukraine use Western weapons to strike Russian targets on Russian soil.

Yet, Ukraine’s gamble in invading the Russian region of Kursk has suggested that, as much as Ukraine remains outnumbered and outgunned, it is still capable of surprises. But can it change what seems to be the direction the war is taking? Indeed, even many friends of Ukraine are wondering if now is the time for peace. After months of steady gains for Russia, Western outlets are now full of stories about Ukraine’s struggles with manpower, conscription, and war-weariness. All this raises the question: how long can Ukraine hold out?

In Ukraine itself, there seems some thawing to the ‘no negotiations’ spirit that had previously united society. Polls track an increased willingness to talk to Russia. But the same polls show little if any appetite for concessions on the crucial issues of territory, military size or NATO membership. Indeed, the fundamental dynamics which prompted the war – Ukraine’s existential difficulty in living next to a revanchist, belligerent and larger country – have not gone away.

If the debate about supporting Ukraine has thus far been confined to lies and platitudes about ‘whatever it takes’ –  is it not time to discuss what the strategy for supporting Ukraine should be? Does the outcome of war simply hinge on who enters the White House, or are broader dynamics at play? What should be the aim in supporting Ukraine – total victory or a better negotiating position? Does it play into Putin’s hands to talk about an end to the war, or is clarity a vital part of supporting Ukraine’s independence?

SPEAKERS
Mary Dejevsky
former foreign correspondent in Moscow, Paris and Washington; special correspondent in China; writer and broadcaster

Tom Mutch
freelance journalist and war reporter

Jacob Reynolds
head of policy, MCC Brussels; associate fellow, Academy of Ideas

CHAIR
Bruno Waterfield
Brussels correspondent, The Times